2008年是嵌入式系統會議(ESC)二十年慶典,ESC已經成為工業界的“風向標”。現在的問題是,所有的設計都轉向嵌入式設計,那么未來20年內ESC的角色將會出現怎樣的變化。

嵌入式系統的邊界已經變得愈加模糊。實際上消費者所依賴的每一個部件背后都隱藏著嵌入式系統。眾所周知臺式機是基于微處理器運行的,然而大量的嵌入式器件已經成為當前應用的靈魂,并且控制這些器件也更加困難。

數位ESC主題演講者達成了這樣一個共識:如果20年前處理器的2%是用于臺式機應用,98%是用于嵌入式設計,那么從今往后20年,這一比例會變為1:99。“在未來20年,我們希望獲得更多的處理能力,”Gilder Publishing的技術分析師Nick Tredennick這樣說:“唯一的不同將是每一個嵌入式器件都將基于T比特的帶寬,而不是現在的吉比特。”

Tredennick長期的工業界經驗頗具導向意義。在Motorola時,他設計的微處理器成為最初Apple Macintosh筆記本的核心引擎。他還曾是Altera的首席科學家,并由于他在微處理器設計方面的貢獻被任命為IEEE資深會員。“我們在2008年將會看到一個一萬億美元的半導體市場,從實際應用角度來看,則都是嵌入式系統,”Tredennick在ESC上這樣介紹。“所以我并不確信‘嵌入式’這個詞是否要繼續保留。”

這與Dinkumwave Ltd.的總裁P.J. Plauger的觀點一致,他通過視頻對主題演講作了點評。Plauger的公司主要向其客戶授權使用標準-正統的C和C++庫以及他開發的在線文檔。“在過去幾年, C和C++已經成為標準的開發語言,”他說。“沒有它們,我們就不會有嵌入式產業。”

Plauger和下一位ESC主題演講人,發明第一個商用實時OS的Jim Ready都認為,當今及未來五年內嵌入式設計人員面臨的最大挑戰是多核處理器的軟件開發難題。

“1999年我們建立了MontaVista Software,編排了嵌入式Linux商業應用的目錄,但當時沒人相信Linux操作系統會應用到嵌入式系統市場,”Ready這樣介紹。他預計,通向多核處理器的道路還會在類似的疑問中鋪就,嵌入式設計人員最終會消除這種疑問。

在視頻主題演講中,C++的設計者和最初制定人Bjarne Stroustrup向C++的標準化工作表達了敬意。C++已經成為公認的開發語言。“我的目標是設計出可以有效并優美編程的語言,”Stroustrup說。“很多語言都逼迫你只能進行二選一。”

目前Stoustrup在Texas A&M University執教,并致力于并行和分布式編程的研究。他對C++的多核應用略帶遺憾:“我們正在尋找程序轉換的方法,可以支持分布式計算、優化和嵌入式系統編程。”

在另一個視頻演講中,來自未來學會,但處在休假期的Paul Saffo這樣預測:“我們在駛向一個‘smartifacts’的世界；也就是說我們所有的行動都受到隱藏的嵌入式處理器的引導,這將影響我們生活的每一個方面。”與其他主題演講者意見一致,Saffo也認為“將要啟動的多核技術將會對開發智能嵌入式系統產生最大的影響。”

他建議ESC的聽眾,在尋找多核并行編程方案過程中遇到無法解決的難題時,要留心過去的經驗。“歷史不會重演,”他引用馬克吐溫的名言,但“歷史確有其規律。”

翻頁查看英文原文:

ESC keynoters: Soon, all design will be embedded design

With 2008 marking the 20th anniversary of the Embedded Systems Conference, ESC has become an industry "essential." The question is how its role might shift in the next 20 years as virtually all design becomes embedded design.

Merely identifying embedded systems has become harder. There's an embedded system hidden under the hood of almost every gadget on which consumers rely. While desktop machines are based on well-known microprocessors, it's tougher to get a handle on the myriad embedded devices that form the soul of today's applications.

Several ESC keynote speakers arrived at a common conclusion: If 20 years ago 2 percent of processors were dedicated to desktop applications and 98 percent to embedded designs, 20 years from now that ratio will be 1:99. "We'll want more and more of the processing power in 20 years," said Nick Tredennick, technology analyst for Gilder Publishing. "The only difference will be that everything embedded will be terabyte-based, instead of today's gigabyte world."

Tredennick's long industry experience is a bellwether. While at Motorola, he designed the microprocessor that became the central engine for the original Apple Macintosh. He was once chief scientist at Altera, and he was named an IEEE fellow for his contributions to microprocessor design. "We'll see a $1 trillion semiconductor market in 2028, and for all practical purposes it will all be embedded," Tredennick told his ESC audience. "So I'm not sure if the 'embedded' nomenclature will survive."

That would suit Dinkumware Ltd. president P.J. Plauger, who delivered keynote remarks via video. Plauger's company licenses standards-conforming C and C++ libraries and online documentation that he developed. "Over the years, C and C++ have become the standard development languages," he said. "Without them, we would not have an embedded industry."

Plauger and fellow ESC keynoter Jim Ready, creator of the first commercial real-time OS, said software development hurdles for multicore processors are the biggest challenge embedded designers face today and in the next five years.

"When we invented the category of embedded Linux commercialization in 1999 by founding MontaVista Software, nobody believed the Linux operating system could be applied to the embedded systems market," said Ready. He predicted that the road to multicore processing is paved with similar skepticism that can and will be disspelled by embedded desigers.

In a video keynote, Bjarne Stroustrup, designer and original implementer of C++, hailed the standardization of C++ as a recognized development language. "My aim was to design a language in which I could write programs that were both efficient and elegant," Stroustrup said. "Many languages force you to choose between those two alternatives."

With regard to multicore applications for C++, Stroustrup, who teaches at Texas A&M University and is engaged in research into parallel and distributed programming, said, "We're looking at ways of using program transformation to support distributed computing, optimization and embedded systems programming."

In another video presentation, Paul Saffo, who is on a research sabbatical from the Institute for the Future, offered this prognostication: "We are moving toward a world of 'smartifacts'; that is, all our actions will be guided by embedded processors hidden from us but influencing every aspect of our lives." Like other keynoters, Saffo said he believes that "the arrival of multicore technologies will have the biggest impact on developing smart embedded systems."

He advised his ESC audience to heed the lessons of the past when looking for solutions to seemingly insurmountable hurdles such as multicore parallel processing. "History doesn't repeat itself," he said, citing an aphorism commonly attributed to Mark Twain, but "it sometimes rhymes."